wholesale body jewelry displays Causes and influences of the global financial crisis

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2008 The cause of the crisis of financial integration

[Abstract] In the context of economic globalization, international economic imbalances will cause international capital to re -allocate globally. In a sense, international economic imbalances and international monetary system defects are the prerequisite for the outbreak of the financial crisis, and the attack of international capital tourism is the realization of the financial crisis. Judging from the current international situation and the domestic situation in China, the prerequisite for the financial crisis is already available, so preventing international tourism attacks is the primary goal of formulating the current macroeconomic policy in my country.
[Keywords] The financial crisis international economic and international monetary system international tour

If financial crisis is caused by external factors or internal factors. There have always been two more opposite views in academia: conspiracy conspiracy On the discussion. The conspiracy theory believes that the financial crisis is caused by the economy's premeditated and planned attacks, which is caused by external causes. Especially after the Southeast Asian financial crisis, this view is more popular. The laws of laws believe that the financial crisis is the own laws of the economy and is caused by internal reasons. The theory of the three generations of financial crisis ① basically acknowledge the law. With the improvement of financial regulatory technology, a country's possibility of the financial crisis due to problems with regulatory or control has become less likely; with the enhancement of economic globalization, the modern financial crisis is basically manifested under the conditions of international economic imbalances. Under the interest of international capital, the distorted national monetary system has caused the regional financial crisis to explode. Therefore, in essence, the nature and causes of the financial crisis have changed. On the basis of existing research, this article specifically analyzes the cause of the formation of the financial crisis from the perspective of the international economy.
. International economic imbalances
Huang Xiaolong (2007) [1] believes that international income and expenditure imbalances lead to imbalance in the international monetary system, virtual economy leads to excess liquidity, which leads to global economic imbalance and financial crisis. Huang Xiaolong studies the financial crisis more complete in China from external factors. Internationally flow, international capital flows have led to the expansion and depression of the virtual economy, which forms a shortage of liquidity, which can eventually lead to a financial crisis. Therefore, the imbalance of the global real economy is a necessary condition for the financial crisis, and the shortage of liquidity caused by the virtual economy is a sufficient condition for the financial crisis.
In view of the history of the financial crisis, the financial crisis is always accompanied by regional or global economic imbalances. Before the financial crisis broke out in 1929, the international economic structure has changed dramatically. The British world hegemon status has gradually tilted to the United States and Europe, especially the rapid growth of the US economy showing a trend of replacing British hegemon. The financial crisis was buried. At the end of the 20th century, the trend of regional economic integration was faster than the trend of economic globalization. The economic connection between Latin American countries and the United States made Latin American countries stronger than other countries. In the 20th century, when the economic structure of the Latin American region was imbalanced, it was often shown in the financial crisis of the Latin American countries. The imbalance between Europe, the United States, and Japan's economic structure is also the root cause of the outbreak of the financial crisis of Europe, the United States, and Japan. When regional or global stable economic structures are broken, new economic balance often takes the financial crisis as the driving force. The European financial crisis in 1992 originated from the rapid development of Germany after the German unity, breaking the economic balance between Germany, the United States, and other countries in Germany. In 1990, Japan was also broken because of the economic balance between the United States and Japan, and under the influence of the financial crisis, a new economic equilibrium was achieved.
areas or global economic imbalances will lead to the reconfiguration of international capital within a certain range. In the context of regional economic integration and economic globalization, the influence of a national macro policy may be regional or global. In the short term, at a certain point, the international economy is relatively balanced, and the total global capital and total demand are certain. When the economy of a country changes, it will cause international capital and international demand to occur in different countries. Change, if it is a small country economy, its influence is only regional. If it is a large country, its influence is global. When a large country has a strong economy, it will attract international capital to flow into the country. As a result, the capital of other countries will flow out. When the capital flows to a certain degree, a shortage of liquidity will occur. Essence The signal of this transformation is a high interest rate policy, or a strong monetary policy. For the economy of the small country, after the economy is strong, it will attract the inflow of international capital. When the number of international capital inflows, the country's real economy absorbs international capital saturation, the international capital will integrate with the virtual economy of the country. When promoting the foaming of the economy, when the virtual economy and the real economy were severely deviated, the international capital retreated quickly, causing small countries to turn from excess liquidity to liquidity tightening, resulting in the outbreak of the financial crisis.
It from the formation path of the financial crisis caused by international economic imbalances, it can be seen that international economic imbalances are expressed through international revenue and expenditure, and the adjustment of international income and expenditure imbalances is carried out through the international currency system. The currency system can completely avoid international economic compulsory and destructive adjustments, that is, it can avoid the occurrence of the financial crisis. However, the real international monetary system is manipulated by a large country, so international economic imbalances will be further distorted and amplified.
. The international monetary system is distorted
The Xu Mingqi is a scholar who earlier the financial crisis of developing countries earlier in the financial crisis of developing countries in the international monetary system. Xu Mingqi (1999) [2] believes that on the one hand, it is the international monetary system that weakens order in reform and maintaining the status quo; on the other hand, it is the weak position of developing countries in international trade, investment and debt; Developing countries had to swallow the bitter fruits of the financial crisis again and again, so the inherent defects of the existing international monetary system are difficult to escape. That is to say, the international monetary system follows the basic principles and concepts of the Bretton Forest system when mediation is imbalanced in international revenue and expenditure, while countries have lost their original order and discipline when formulating monetary policy coordination of international economic imbalances. Therefore, now now The imbalance of the international economy has been amplified by the current international currency system and exacerbated.
Platin forest system after disintegration, the existing international currency system is a loose international currency system. Although the role of the euro and the yen has gradually increased in the international currency system, the diversification of reserve currencies cannot effectively solve the effect "Trifen's problem" is just to decentralize contradictions, that is, reserve currency is both a national currency and an international currency. The country that serves as reserve currency to formulate macroeconomic policies in accordance with the domestic macroeconomic conditions, which will inevitably contradict the world economic or regional economic requirements, which will lead to unstable foreign exchange market and the turbulence of the financial market. To implement a country that is linked to a certain reserve currency or staring at a certain currency, it must be affected by the monetary policy of the country's currency country, but also the cross -currency policy between many countries. The changes in exchange rates and interest rates between reserve currencies have greatly enhanced the impact on developing countries, making the foreign exchange market more unstable and turbulent. This impact can be divided into regional and global. In view of the special status of the US dollar, the impact of US economic policy changes may be regional or global.
The US dollar as an example, the value adjustment of the US dollar is achieved through the adjustment of the US dollar interest rate. When the Federal Reserve formulates the US dollar interest rate, it is impossible to take into account the macroeconomic status of the country (region) that stares at the US dollar or uses the US dollar as a reserve. Therefore, when the US dollar interest rate is adjusted, it is often close to other economies, especially the US economic connection. The country and regions linked to the dollar caused an impact [3]. First of all, the imperfect international monetary system with the US dollar as the pillar, regardless of whether a floating exchange rate policy or a fixed exchange rate policy, the US economy affects all the currency value changes in all countries and countries that are closely related to its economy. If the floating exchange rate policy can abide by the disciplinary constraints of monetary policy formulation under the monetary system, there will be no unstable speculative attacks in the world financial market, nor will the currency market turbulent or even the financial crisis caused by it. Because there is a contradiction between the autonomy and economic globalization of monetary policy, the current monetary system cannot ensure the discipline of the US dollar under the premise of floating exchange rates. Therefore, the macro policy of a country will lead to the currency market in economic related countries The turbulent financial crisis broke out under the catalysis of speculative capital. Judging from the current status quo, although the Bretton forest system has collapsed, compared to emerging market countries and developing countries, whether the US dollar appreciates or depreciates, it will still cause strong fluctuations in the economy of these countries. When the US economy is prosperous, the appreciation of the US dollar will lead to the outflow of capital; when the US economy is depressed, the depreciation of the US dollar will lead to inflation in these countries.
It's analysis can be seen that the current international monetary system retains the concept and principles of the original international currency system, but it has lost its original order and discipline. Strong economies can use such a system to pass on the financial crisis and Get more profits without having to bear too much responsibility.
. The attack of international tourism
The international economic imbalance is the prerequisite for the financial crisis. The imperfect international monetary system will exacerbate international economic imbalances. However, the initiator of the financial crisis is international capital. After the Bretton Forest system collapsed, the financial crisis was inseparable from the international attack. In the European financial crisis in 1992, Soros obtained a 1: 20 borrowing through a deposit method. In just one month, it was equivalent to $ 7 billion in pounds of pounds, and the purchase of Mark, which is equivalent to $ 6 billion, forcing Declansed significantly, net earning 1.5 billion US dollars after repayment of loans [4]. Before the financial crisis in Mexico in 1994, international tourism continued to enter the Mexican securities market in large quantities. Among the foreign capital absorbed by Mexico, securities investment accounted for 70 % to 80 %, but in more than 40 days after the assassination of the Mexican presidential candidate was assassinated Foreign capital withdrawn from $ 10 billion, which directly led to the outbreak of the Mexican financial crisis [5]. The Southeast Asian financial crisis in 1997 was also the first to attack Thai baht internationally, buying low -selling high -selling, and clever use of financial derivatives to obtain high returns.
If according to the statistics of IMF's international tourism, the international short -term capital of the early 1980s was US $ 3 trillion, and by the end of 1997, it increased to 72 trillion US dollars, which was equivalent to 20 % of the global GDP that year. Essence At the end of 2006, the total assets managed by hedge funds alone reached US $ 43 trillion, an increase of about 6 times over the end of 1996. The investment strategy of hedge funds is also continuously enriched. From the initial "short -selling leverage" strategy (market neutral fund) to a single strategy type (including arbitrage type, direction type, event -driven type, etc.) Emerging market types, mergers and acquisitions, etc.), fund funds and other investment strategies. Its risk characteristics also show a diverse trend. There are both high -risk and high -yield macro hedge funds, as well as low -risk but relatively stable market neutral funds. The most significant feature of international capital flows since the 1990s is that the flow of excess capital between international capital has caused instability of the country, region, and even global economic development. Giant international currency capital must hunt profits in various countries and regions in the world.
Where is the financial system of international tourism that can destroy a country? As we all know, the scale of international tourism is large, and it has the ability to influence and shorten the financial cycle of the attacking country. The financial cycle refers to the natural process of a national financial market from prosperity to depression. When international tourism enters the attacking country, it will affect the interest rate and exchange rate changes of a country, thereby accelerating the transformation of the financial market from rational development to irrational prosperity [6]. According to the analysis of the principle of self -actualization of the financial market's psychological expectations, when a large number of international tourists enter a country, even if the economic development of this country is average, in the case of a large amount of capital entry, it will also drive the rapid development of the financial economy. In the case of international financialists, they consciously exaggerate the achievements or existing problems in the development of the country by conscious exaggeration to generate positive or negative psychological expectations. Judging from the actual situation of Latin America and Southeast Asian countries, generally use "economic miracles" and "new development models" to tout economic achievements, and then use "possibilities" and "face collapse" to exaggerate the problems in the economy. Throughout the process, international tourism has premeditated to enter and retreat, which will lead to the collapse of the financial market. International tourism uses financial derivatives to earn high profits during the financial prosperity period. It can also use the financial crisis to earn high profits or acquire high -quality capital of crisis countries to control the economic lifeblood of the attacking country. This is why the international direct investment (FDI) after the financial crisis broke out in emerging market countries, the fundamental reason why the international direct investment (FDI) acquired the high -quality assets of the crisis country to form a new economic colonialism.
. The strategy of China's prevention of aggressive financial crisis
It in the Chinese stock market from the plunge to the plunge and the Chinese real estate market has experienced it after waiting to wait and see, is China's economy entering a turning point from prosperity to crisis transitional transition point. Will China burst out of the financial crisis? From the perspective of economic appearance, in my country's economic operation, it is still manifested as excess liquidity, inflation and RMB appreciation expectations, etc. From the perspective of economic nature, there is an industrial structure in my country's economic operation. Adjust lag, weak technical independent innovation capabilities, and imperfect financial markets. These phenomena and problems have both external factors and internal factors.
At present, the characteristics of global economic imbalances are more obvious. First of all, the US economy has entered a depression period. The secondary debt crisis has worsened the US economy, while the EU, Japan, China and Russia have continued to grow. Secondly, the spread of the US dollar has led to the continuous depreciation of the US dollar on the euro and the RMB, which caused the pressure of inflation in other countries. Again, the scale of international tourism flowing worldwide is getting larger and larger. In order to revitalize the economic policy of reducing interest in the United States, the US dollar is also rapidly depreciating other currencies.
The spread of RMB to the US dollar since 2005. In February 2006, the interest difference reached 3 %. After the inflow of overseas capital, it often exchanged for RMB to lend. Instead, the loan interest rate is measured. The 1 -year benchmark loan interest rate is 7.47 %. If the annual appreciation of the RMB is expected to be 5 %, then the return of international tourism will be close to 13 %. If international tourism is not a loan form, but directly invests in China's real estate or stocks, its yield will be higher. In 2007, the profit of investing in China's real estate should not be less than 30 %.
The high return of RMB appreciation expectations and foreign investment in China attracted a large number of foreign capital to enter China through various channels. How much international tourism has entered my country in 2007, and domestic scholars have different calculations. Adopting simple calculations, minusing foreign trade surplus and foreign direct investment with foreign exchange reserves. In 2007, it entered my country's international tourism for nearly 80 billion US dollars. 80 billion US dollars of international tourism inflows can completely explain the phenomenon of excess liquidity, the bubble of the housing and stock market, and the current pressure of inflation in my country. As long as the RMB appreciation is expected to exist, international tourism will not be drawn away. The fundamental reason for the expected RMB appreciation is that the real economy of my country is still growing, which is manifested by the existence of my country's international trade surplus, and the price of non -trade products in my country is far lower than that of developed countries. What is urgent in international tourism is to continue to raise the price of non -trading products in my country, and escape at the right time. Under the herd effect, the Chinese financial crisis has been detonated. After that, international capital returns to acquire high -quality capital of China.
If China should effectively prevent the above -mentioned aggressive financial crisis. First of all, it is necessary to strictly control the irrational development of the virtual economy, quickly reduce the property market and the stock market bubble, and set up international capital to stimulate the growth of the real economy. There are two ideas to settle in international tourism: First, from the short term of international tourism, the transformation of normal profits in the long run, reducing the cost of using foreign capital, and allowing foreign capital to serve my country's economic construction. The second is to build long -term psychological expectations to keep foreign capital in China; among them, it is very important to maintain the continuous growth of China's real economy. The third is to plan to reduce the foreign exchange reserves of our country, specially reduce foreign exchange reserves in the form of national debt, transform foreign exchange reserves into tangible assets, realize foreign exchange preservation and value -added, and use foreign exchange reserves to regulate the international economy, so that it is conducive to our country Sustainable economic development. Finally, strengthen the control of cross -border capital, and actively interfere with and supervise the short -term international tourism.

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